Bounces Just Aren't What They Used To Be

Nate Silver looks back at post-convention polling and finds the "three smallest bounces for the challenging candidates came in the last three elections. Bounces aren't what they used to be, perhaps because voters are saturated with information months in advance of an election, increased partisanship and sterilized conventions that may have become too polished for their own good."

"The catch is that each of these things is a structural factor, and therefore might predict that Mr. Obama won't get much of a bounce either. Maybe this is just the new normal; the assumption that our forecast model had made in advance of the convention was that Mr. Romney would get only a four-point bounce."